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Parliamentary debates and questions

S5W-05238: Miles Briggs (Lothian)

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

Date lodged: 30 November 2016

To ask the Scottish Government how many vehicles it expects to use the Edinburgh City bypass over each of the next five years, broken down by vehicle type, and what long-term projection it has made for the next 25 years.

Answered by: Humza Yousaf 13 December 2016

Transport Scotland maintain a range of traffic forecasts on all trunk roads in Scotland using the national transport model, the Transport Model for Scotland. It has a base year of 2014 and produces forecasts for a number of future years through to 2037. Future forecasts of demand are based upon a range of assumptions including population growth, fuel prices, economic activity and land-use changes. There is uncertainty associated with these assumptions which increases over time.As levels of uncertainty are greater than typical annual growth (see Scottish Transport Statistics Table 5.7(b)), forecasts are created at five yearly intervals.

Details of forecast traffic flows on the A720 Edinburgh Bypass are shown in the following table. As flows vary considerably around the bypass, the forecasts provided are for the west of Dreghorn junction which was selected to match the location of observed data reported in Scottish Transport Statistics Tables 5.7(a) and (b).

 

A720 Edinburgh Bypass – West of Dreghorn

(All Flows are Vehicles per day)

Year

Total Number of Vehicles

% Heavy Goods Vehicles

2014

78,000

12%

2017

83,000

12%

2022

88,000

13%

2027

93,000

13%

2032

98,000

13%

2037

102,000

14%