Date lodged: 15 May 2018
To ask the Scottish Government what analysis it has carried out of the impact of overseas workers in Scotland on (a) tax revenue, (b) economic growth, (c) the NHS and (d) other public services.
Answered by: Keith Brown 24 May 2018
The long term impact on the economy of lower EU migration was set out in our recent paper - Scotland’s population needs and migration policy: Discussion paper on evidence, policy and powers for the Scottish Parliament .
The analysis presented in this paper estimated that a reduction in migration, under a “central scenario” of the ONS principal migration scenario, could reduce Scotland’s GDP by 4.5% per year and Government revenue by 3.5% per year by 2040.
Under a “low migration scenario” GDP in Scotland could be 9.3% lower per year, with Government Revenue 4.7% lower per year by 2040.
The results show that these scenarios will result in less Government revenue, meaning less resources to invest in the NHS or other public services.